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By Mason Clark with Catherine Harris Key Takeaway : The Kremlin took a significant step to enhance the military’s ability to control the information space within the Russian Armed Forces by establishing a Military-Political Directorate within the Russian Ministry of Defense. This Directorate could also support efforts to shape the information space abroad. The U.S. and NATO must recognize that Russia is serious about integrating information operations with both conventional and unconventional military operations down to the lowest levels of combat and adjust their preparations for potential conflict with Russia accordingly. The Kremlin is prioritizing conducting and defending against hybrid operations as part of its broader campaign to modernize the Russian Armed Forces . It is reorienting the military away from preparations for large-scale conventional warfare in favor of increased information and hybrid warfare capabilities as well as programs to counter information campaigns that th...

By ISW's Syria Team and Syria Direct The following graphic marks the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and  Syria Direct . The map depicts significant developments in the war in Syria during the period December 13, 2018 - January 9, 2019. Click image to enlarge.

By Matti Suomenaro, Samantha Leathley, and Aaron Hesse with Christopher Kozak Key Takeaway : Russia and Iran have begun to exploit the new strategic environment created by the forthcoming withdrawal of the U.S. from Syria ( map ). Russia, Iran, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad mobilized additional units to the Middle Euphrates River Valley in Eastern Syria in late December 2018. [1] These reinforcements - which included elite units of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) as well as elements of the Russian Armed Forces - are postured to cross the Euphrates River and seize valuable oil-rich terrain currently held by the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition and allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Russia and Assad also deployed reinforcements to block an imminent offensive by Turkey against the SDF in Manbij in Northern Syria on December 28. These deployments are not included in this graphic’s field of view. The Russo-Iranian Coalition likely intends to deter further gains by Turkish President Recep Ta...

By Catherine Harris, Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and the ISW Russia Team Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula and the east . The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has been warning that Russia could conduct such operations at short notice since December 11, 2018. It remains impossible to assess whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to launch an offensive or will do so, or whether the visible military preparations are intended to pressure Ukraine and its partners without escalating to additional open conflict. The data suggests that Putin is preparing to attack, although alternative interpretations are possible. One can make reasoned arguments about why it would be unwise for him to attack now (or, indeed, at all). The West should nevertheless focus first on the data itself and the risks that flow from it, rather than on reasoning about Putin’s intentions. Si...

By the ISW Research Team Key Takeaway : Russia and Iran are poised to exploit the U.S. withdrawal from Syria announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on December 19. They and their proxies hold positions along the Syrian-Iraqi Border surrounding areas that the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition and allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently hold. Russia and Iran will undoubtedly attempt to fill the security vacuum left behind by the U.S. in Eastern Syria. The Russo-Iranian Coalition is nonetheless stretched thin and likely cannot secure this new terrain without opening exploitable vulnerabilities for ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq. Turkey and other regional actors will also likely attempt to exploit this opening to compete for terrain and influence in Syria. This map depicts the Russo-Iranian Coalition’s known positions in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq as of December 21. Position locations are based on information available in open sources reviewed by the Institute for the Study of Wa...

By Brandon Wallace with Jennifer Cafarella The U.S. and its allies have not defeated ISIS in Iraq or Syria . ISIS has fixed the attention of the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition on the last remaining territorial pocket of its caliphate even as it regroups in other parts of Syria. ISIS is also reconstituting in its traditional strongholds in Iraq. Current conditions on the ground do not warrant the withdrawal of the U.S. from Syria. See the previous version of this assessment published in October 2018 here . ISIS in Syria : The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition has not yet destroyed the final physical stronghold of ISIS along the Middle Euphrates River Valley in Eastern Syria. ISIS retains control over roughly twenty kilometers of terrain that it uses as a staging ground for counterattacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF reportedly seized the majority of the town of Hajin on December 14. The urban center remains contested and partner forces were only able to progress after an intense...