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Showing posts from August, 2017

Syria Situation Report: August 8 - 23, 2017

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By: ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct  This series of graphics marks the latest installments of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and  Syria Direct . These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from August 8 - 23, 2017. The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of August 8, 2017. Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for  her contributions to the text of these Syria SITREP Maps.

Moldova Update: Kremlin Will Likely Seek to Realign Chisinau

                                                              Franklin Holcomb, Sean Jones, Nataliya Bugayova Russia likely perceives a requirement to subvert the Moldovan government before Moldova’s 2018 parliamentary elections or risk surrendering influence over the country’s decision-making. The broadly pro-Western Moldovan government recently took steps to curb Russia’s subversion, and expand its cooperation with Ukraine and NATO. Moldova’s pro-Russia President Igor Dodon has thus far failed to make meaningful progress in pushing Moldova into the Kremlin’s orbit. Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely attempt to destabilize the government of Moldova and empower President Dodon to reset the political situation in Chisinau in the Kremlin’s favor. The U.S. must support the forces in Moldova defending the country’s sovereignty a...

Russia's Syria Mirage: July 17 - August 13, 2017

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By Matti Suomenaro, Ellen Stockert, and Genevieve Casagrande Russia continues to masquerade as an effective anti-ISIS actor in order to lure the U.S. into a counter-terrorism partnership in Syria. Russia seeks to leverage this partnership to expedite an American withdrawal from Syria, removing the U.S. as an obstacle to continued Russian build up and force projection in the Middle East. Russia may achieve short-term territorial gains against ISIS, but will ultimately undermine U.S.-led anti-ISIS efforts in Eastern Syria. The Russian-backed campaign will fail to decisively defeat ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria, however. Russian airstrikes in ISIS-held terrain regularly targeted civilian infrastructure such as mosques , schools , and medical centers from July 17 - August 13, according to local activists. Russian airstrikes also reportedly targeted an internally-displaced persons (IDP) camp in Zour Shamar in Eastern Raqqa province on July 23 - 24. Russia’s punitive strikes against vulnerab...

Syria Situation Report: July 27 - August 9, 2017

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By ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct T his series of graphics marks the latest installments of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and   Syria Direct .  These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from July 27 to August 9, 2017. The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of August 8, 2017. Special credit to Matti Suomenaro and Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for their contributions to the text and graphics of this series of Syria SITREP Maps.

Syria Situation Report: June 29 - July 27, 2017

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By ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct This series of graphics marks the latest installments of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and  Syria Direct . These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from June 29 to July 27, 2017. The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of July 6 or July 16, 2017. Special credit to Matti Suomenaro and Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for their contributions to the text and graphics of this series of Syria SITREP Maps.

Ukraine Update: Russia’s Aggressive Subversion of Ukraine

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                                                  Catherine Harris, Franklin Holcomb, Charlie Bacsik, and Charles Frattini III Key Takeaway: Ukraine’s efforts to integrate with the West yielded important progress in the past two months. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s overall pro-Western reformist movement grew more vulnerable to internal destabilization and Russian subversion. Stalling reforms, a poor economy, and an increased focus on the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine provide momentum to populists and pro-Russian political elements, as well as additional opportunities for the Kremlin to exploit as it aims to return Ukraine to its sphere of influence. The Kremlin continued its military aggression in the east and expanded its subversion campaign throughout the country, focusing on low-visibility methods, such as paying individuals to conduct pr...

Iran and Al Qaeda Exploit Syria Ceasefire

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By Genevieve Casagrande Key Takeaway: The U.S., Russia, Jordan “de-escalation zone” in Southwest Syria advances the interests of U.S. enemies and adversaries, including Iran and al Qaeda. The U.S. likely sought to leverage the agreement to drive a wedge within the Russo-Iranian Coalition, while reducing violence and testing a potential partnership with Russia to improve security in Syria. The deal has temporarily reduced violence, but at great cost to long-term U.S. interests in Syria. The Russo-Iranian coalition is exploiting the agreement to consolidate in the south. Al Qaeda will likewise leverage the deal and the recent cut to U.S. support to vetted Syrian opposition groups to preserve and expand its influence in Southern Syria. The de-escalation zone brokered by the U.S., Russia, and Jordan does not meaningfully constrain Iranian build up in Southern Syria and along the Golan Heights.  The deal is rumored to include an “exclusionary zone” that requires Iranian and other non-S...