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By Christopher Kozak Key Takeaway: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies in Russia and Iran are preparing to launch imminent combat operations in violation of the de-escalation zone in southern Syria. Al Qaeda is also likely preparing for a return of hostilities to southern Syria. The end of the ceasefire would generate new military and humanitarian crises on the borders of Jordan and Israel. The resumption of violence would also present an opportunity – if not counteracted – for further consolidation by Iran and Al Qaeda in southern Syria. The U.S. and its allies must set conditions to transform the inevitable collapse of its flawed truce into an opportunity to advance its interests against Iran, ISIS, and Al Qaeda in southern Syria. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies in Russia and Iran are preparing to launch imminent combat operations in violation of the de-escalation zone in southern Syria brokered by the U.S., Russia, and Jordan in July 2017. Pro-regime o...

By Bradley Hanlon Key Takeaway: Russia’s effort to secure a diplomatic “end” to the Syrian civil war that preserves Syrian president Bashar al Assad failed. Russia’s “Syrian National Dialogue Congress” concluded in Sochi on January 30th without meaningful progress. Russia’s failure reflects the limits of its leverage in Syria and demonstrates the futility of looking to Russia for diplomatic solutions in the Middle East and North Africa. Russia failed in its effort to secure a diplomatic “end” to the Syrian civil war that preserves Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Russia’s diplomatic initiative, titled the “Syrian National Dialogue Congress”, concluded in Sochi on January 30th without meaningful progress. The Kremlin’s stated goal was to establish a political solution to the Syrian Civil War.[1] Russia’s true objective was to construct an agreement that would formally end the war on terms favorable to Syrian President Bashar al Assad. The Kremlin failed to compel opposition groups...

By Elizabeth Teoman and Jennifer Cafarella with the ISW Syria Team Key Takeaway: The Assad regime and Iran attacked Turkish forces that deployed into Syria with apparent Russian permission to establish a blocking position near a critical front line south of Aleppo City. Turkey’s goal was to deter Assad and Iran from providing military support to Kurdish forces defending Afrin against a Turkish offensive. Turkish forces stopped short of their objective after coming under fire and it is unclear whether they will resume their advance. Iran and Assad are acting as spoilers to demonstrate that Russia cannot fully control them. Pro-Assad regime forces attacked a Turkish convoy that deployed from Turkey into Syria on January 29. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) deployed a convoy of up to 100 armored vehicles with air support from Turkish F-16 fighter jets to establish a blocking position near a key front line between pro- and anti- Assad regime forces south of Aleppo City on January 29. Turkis...

By Matti Suomenaro Russia continued its air campaign in Syria despite attacks on its personnel, facilities, and equipment while simultaneously claiming a partial withdrawal of its forces to please a domestic audience before the upcoming presidential election. Russia reported a partial withdrawal of its air assets in an effort to signal a military victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the runup to presidential election scheduled for March 18, 2018, but the draw-down is likely a ruse. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on December 22, 2017, that a partial withdrawal from Syria  ordered  by Putin on December 10 was  complete , ending more than two years of Russian involvement in the conflict. Shoigu reported that the withdrawal included 36 fixed-wing aircraft and four helicopter gunships - the vast majority of the air group operated by Russia in Syria. However, Russia previously has used false claims of withdrawal to rotate and redeploy new assets to...

By: ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct This graphic marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and Syria Direct . This graphic depicts significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from January 10 to January 24, 2018. The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as January 26, 2018. Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of these Syria SITREP Maps.

By Omer Kassim Key Takeaway: Iraq’s Kurdish political parties have fractured rapidly since September 2017, when the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) unilaterally held an independence referendum contravening ultimatums from Baghdad and Tehran. The KRG lost control of key terrain to Iraqi Security Forces and Iranian proxies in October 2017, forcing longtime KRG President Masoud Barzani, the architect of the referendum, to resign from his office. Further fractures in mid-January 2018 have set conditions for an even more contentious Kurdish legislative election in March 2018 that will determine Barzani’s successor and shape the KRG’s political structure. These fractures also reduce the ability of Kurdish parties to negotiate effectively with Baghdad over key issues for the region’s future, such as its share of Iraq’s national budget. The Kurdish electoral splits may endure long enough to preclude the Kurds from functioning as an effective, cohesive power bloc in the upcoming Iraqi natio...

By Elizabeth Teoman and Jennifer Cafarella Turkey is preparing to launch the main effort of its Operation Olive Branch assault against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the Afrin area in northern Syria. Turkish forces and Turkish-backed Syrian opposition groups have set military conditions for a Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) ground operation in the coming days. Turkish warplanes began an air campaign against YPG military targets along the Syrian-Turkish border on January 20th, 2018. Turkish Armed Forces and Turkish-backed Syrian opposition groups attacked YPG forces on multiple fronts along the northern outskirts of YPG-held terrain from January 20-22 in order to fix YPG forces while additional TSK forces, including armored units, mobilized on the YPG's western and southwestern flank. Russian forces, meanwhile, withdrew from Afrin and reinforced Russian positions near Tel Rifaat.  The Institute for the Study of War’s January 23 map depicts a possible course ...

by: Jennifer Cafarella and Elizabeth Teoman with Bradley Hanlon Key Takeaway: Turkey launched an air-ground operation against the American partner force in Syria, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), in Afrin district northwest of Aleppo City on January 20th, 2018. Turkey’s goal is to extend its buffer zone along the Syrian-Turkish border. Turkey may subsequently attack the town of Manbij, east of Afrin on the banks of the Euphrates River. Turkey’s operations threaten to provoke a widening Turkish-Kurdish war that could unravel the U.S. stabilization effort in eastern Syria, place U.S. service members in Manbij at risk, and force the U.S. to reconsider support for the YPG. Turkey launched an air-ground operation against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) to extend Turkey’s buffer zone along the Syrian-Turkish border. Forces from Turkey’s Second Army launched a three-pronged ground attack – “ Operation Olive Branch ” – against YPG forces northwest of Al...

By: ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct This series of graphics marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and  Syria Direct . These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from December 14, 2017 to January 10, 2018. The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of December 12, 2017 or January 8, 2018, respectively. Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of these Syria SITREP Maps.

By Elizabeth Teoman and Jennifer Cafarella with Bradley Hanlon Key Takeaway:  Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is preparing to attack America’s local partner in northern Syria on two fronts along the Turkish border. Russia and the Bashar al Assad regime support his planned operation, which could constrain the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River and possibly neutralize American plans to build an SDF-linked “border security force.” Erdogan’s escalation is consistent with the Institute for the Study of War’s September 2017 forecast that Turkey will conduct new military operations against U.S.-backed forces. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pivoted from blocking Russia in northern Syria’s Idlib Province to preparing an attack against the U.S. partner force.   Erdogan announced his intent to attack the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) at a political event in Turkey on January 13. He stated Turkish forces will...

By Jennifer Cafarella and Elizabeth Teoman with Matti Suomenaro Key Takeaway: Turkey is using a combination of military and diplomatic pressure to compel Russia and Iran to halt further offensive operations against Syria’s al Qaeda-dominated Idlib Province. An Assad-Iranian-Russian conquest of Idlib is not in America’s national security interest. The US should help Turkey block these operations but must do so without accepting Turkey’s willingness to work with al Qaeda and without submitting to Russia’s sham diplomatic track to negotiate an end to the Syrian war. The US must instead retain freedom of action and avoid the temptation to outsource American national security requirements to regional actors already at war in Syria.  Russia, Iran, and Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime launched a joint operation in northwestern Syria against the al Qaeda stronghold in Idlib Province in November 2017. Their operational objective is to seize the Abu ad Duhor airbase southwest of Al...