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By Elizabeth Teoman Key Takeaway:   Turkish forces and Turkish-backed rebels seized the final stretch of the Syria-Turkey border in Afrin from the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) on February 26, 2018.   The seizure of the border accomplishes the first of five  assessed Turkish operational objectives  in Afrin. The next two assessed operational objectives are to isolate Afrin City and secure ground lines of communication to the border. Turkey  deployed  additional forces to Syria including Turkish Gendarmerie and Police Special Forces on February 26 to continue its advance despite a  U.N. demand  for a nationwide  ceasefire  in Syria. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Turkey also seeks to seize the Mennagh airbase in future operations and to establish a new forward line of troops with pro-Bashar al Assad regime forces southeast of Afrin City.

By Matti Suomenaro Russia is setting diplomatic and military conditions for a pro-regime offensive to expel the opposition from the Eastern Ghouta Suburbs of Damascus. Russia shifted its air campaign to participate in an intense aerial bombardment that has killed hundreds of civilians and fueled a widening humanitarian catastrophe in Eastern Ghouta. Russia is exploiting a de-escalation zone implemented by Turkey in Idlib Province in order to redirect pro-regime manpower and assets towards Damascus. Russia remains a net driver of violence rather than stability in the Syrian Civil War. Russia is directly participating through its air campaign in an emergent humanitarian catastrophe in Eastern Ghouta. Russia and Syria dramatically intensified their airstrikes and artillery shelling on the besieged opposition-held Eastern Ghouta Suburbs of Damascus, killing more than four hundred civilians and targeting at least five hospitals on February 18 - 22. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denie...

By: ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct This series of graphics marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and Syria Direct . These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from February 7 - 21, 2018. The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of February 22, 2018. Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of these Syria SITREP Maps.

By Christopher Kozak Pro-regime forces including Russia and Iran have launched an offensive to clear the besieged opposition-held Eastern Ghouta Suburbs on the outskirts of Damascus. This graphic depicts the military situation in Damascus as of February 22, 2018. This graphic only depicts control of terrain changes that occurred after May 1, 2016.

By: Bradley Hanlon with the ISW Research Team Key Takeaway: The Russian Wagner private military company and Lebanese Hezbollah attacked U.S. and partner forces in Eastern Syria on February 7, 2018. Wagner is part of the business empire belonging to Putin ally Evgeni Prigozhin, whom Special Counsel Robert Mueller indicted on February 16.  The Kremlin uses proxy forces in Ukraine as well as Syria to maintain plausible deniability and avoid accountability for aggressive actions abroad. A proxy directly attacking U.S. forces is a significant escalation in the Kremlin’s use of irregular forces. The U.S. responded tactically in self-defense, but Secretary of Defense James Mattis did not hold Russia accountable, questioning whether Moscow had ordered the attack. The U.S. failure to hold Russia accountable and respond strategically to this attack sets a dangerous precedent, enabling the expansion of Russian proxy warfare. The Kremlin can use deniable proxies to attack U.S. forces and part...

By Elizabeth Teoman and Jennifer Cafarella with the ISW and CTP Teams Key Takeaway: A genuine U.S.-Turkey rapprochement will require Turkey to counter al Qaeda in Syria. The U.S. and Turkey released a joint statement on February 16, 2018 during Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s trip to Ankara that expressed resolve to fight against terrorists, including al Qaeda. Yet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been expanding Ankara’s partnership with al Qaeda in Syria. Future negotiations with Turkey over political and security structures in Syrian Kurdish-dominated terrain, which will start with Manbij according to Secretary Tillerson, may de-escalate tensions. A broader U.S. effort to realign with Turkey in order to achieve American objectives will not survive Erdogan empowering al Qaeda in Northern Syria, however. Turkey launched the main effort of its campaign against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the Afrin District of Northern Syria. Turkey and Turkish-b...

By Christopher Kozak Russia prioritized its air support for a major pro-Bashar al-Assad regime ground campaign into Idlib Province between January 22 and February 11, 2018. The Russian Armed Forces focused its air operations in support of a wider pro-regime ground campaign to capture terrain in opposition-held Greater Idlib Province. Russia enabled a successful pro-regime offensive that seized full control of the Abu Dhuhur Airbase in Eastern Idlib Province on January 20. Russia subsequently supported a pro-regime advance towards the town of Saraqib in Idlib Province that began on January 31. Russia conducted heavy airstrikes targeting opposition-held villages along pro-regime frontlines across Eastern Idlib and Southern Aleppo Provinces. Russia also launched near-daily air raids against Saraqib itself that prompted the opposition Saraqib Local Council to declare a ‘ disaster zone ’ in the town. Saraqib occupies a strategic position along the M5 Highway that would provide an ideal s...

By Jessa Rose Dury-Agri Iraq’s political parties will use a week-long extension on the submission of electoral list candidates to reshape unofficial and official electoral list alliances. Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) extended the submission deadline for electoral list coalition candidates from February 10 until February 15. The candidate lists determine how seats will be allocated after the election on May 12, 2018. Political alliances have become unusually fluid since January 11, IHEC’s official deadline for alliance formation. The extension gives additional time for electoral list coalitions to establish the order and quota of member parties on their candidate lists. The bonus week also allows parties to split and join electoral list coalitions unofficially by coordinating their candidate list submissions. IHEC may also bend to political pressure and allow legal means for alliances to form officially.  Political alliances show signs of upcoming change. ...

By: Matti Suomenaro and the ISW Syria Team Key Takeaway : America's adversaries in Syria are using military force to undermine U.S. forces and their partners. The Russian and Iranian military coalition backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad coordinated a major attack against the U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition in Eastern Syria. The U.S. responded tactically by striking its attackers in self defense, stopping the offensive. But this tactical success demonstrates that U.S. strategy in Syria is failing. Russia and Iran seek ways to capitalize on U.S. failures and act to constrain, disrupt, and ultimately expel the U.S. from Syria and the Middle East. Turkey, meanwhile, has invaded Syria to challenge Kurdish forces, some of which the U.S. backs. The U.S. risks losing the gains it has made fighting ISIS to Russia and Iran. Russia and Iran intentionally attacked U.S. and partnered forces in Eastern Syria. Several hundred pro-Syrian regime fighters launched a “ coordinated attack ” against...