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By Catherine Harris with Jennifer Cafarella and the ISW Syria Team Key Takeaway : Russia, Iran, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are continuing to set conditions to attack the U.S. and its primary ground partner - the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - in Eastern Syria while international attention is focused on a possible pro-regime offensive in Idlib Province. Pro-regime forces are amassing in Deir ez-Zour Province and consolidating control over infrastructure that could enable future attacks across the Euphrates River. The Russo-Iranian Coalition likely intends to extract concessions from the SDF and U.S. by threatening kinetic escalation in Eastern Syria. They nonetheless remain prepared to use force if negotiations fail . RELATED READING:  Russia in Review (September 14, 2018) Russia and Iran have taken additional steps to set conditions for a potential offensive against the U.S. and its partners in Eastern Syria . The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) previously warned ...

By Aaron Hesse with Samantha Leathley KT: Rival Iraqi Shi’a powerbrokers are calling for competing protests on Friday, August 31, 2018. Iranian-backed proxy forces, nationalist Shi’a cleric Moqtada al Sadr, and former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki all intend to use street demonstrations to gain leverage in negotiations over the next Government of Iraq ahead of a key constitutional deadline on September 3. These dueling protests in majority-Shi’a Southern Iraq could turn violent. ISW is tracking the situation closely and will continue to provide updates. Iran and its proxies are likely fueling new protests against the U.S. that erupted in Baghdad on August 29. Protesters near the Green Zone held banners depicting U.S. Special Envoy to the Anti-ISIS Coalition Brett McGurk and warning that “anyone who negotiates with [McGurk] is a traitor to Iraqi martyrs.” Iranian-backed proxy forces have openly threatened to attack U.S. forces as recently as July 2018. ISW warned on August 28 ...

Russia in Review is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them. Reporting Period : August 21 - 28, 2018 (The previous period's INTSUM is available here .) Authors : Jack Ulses and Catherine Harris Key Takeaway : The Kremlin continues to pursue aggressive foreign policy objectives that undermine the global influence of the U.S. despite domestic economic setbacks that stem in part from new U.S. sanctions. The Kremlin will likely increase its efforts to posture as a security guarantor in Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to supplant U.S. regional influence in South Asia. Russia may also seek to cultivate new sources of support among international actors in order to mitigate future economic damage from sanctions. The Kremlin nonetheless is being forced to take action to respond to domestic disc...

By Aaron Hesse with Samantha Leathley and Jennifer Cafarella Key Takeaway : The U.S. has temporarily disrupted Iran’s play to form a new Government of Iraq hostile to the U.S. Renewed U.S. diplomatic engagement in Iraq and the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran have strengthened Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi’s leverage ahead of a deadline for the first phase of government formation on September 3. Abadi blocked a bid by Iran to use the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to grant concessions to Iraqi Sunnis in return for their support for a proxy-led governing coalition. The U.S. is now helping Abadi broker a deal with Iraqi Sunnis and the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) that would exclude Iran’s proxies. Iran has a range of response options in Iraq and could choose to escalate militarily against Abadi, Iraqi Security Forces, or the U.S. in Iraq.  The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is tracking the situation closely and will continue to provide updates. Ir...

Russia in Review  is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them .  Reporting Period : August 14 - 20, 2018 (The previous period's INSTUM is available here .) Authors : Catherine Harris and Jack Ulses  Contributors : Molly Adler, Mason Clark, Nicole Geis, Chase Johnson, Maxim Yulis  Key Takeaway: The Kremlin experienced renewed friction with Turkey over Syria that may force Russia to reconsider its long-term strategic approach towards Turkey. Russia and Turkey’s interests will likely continue to diverge on the battlefield in Syria. The Kremlin will therefore likely offer high-level diplomatic and economic incentives to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to advance its ultimate strategic objective to weaken and fracture NATO. Meanwhile, Iran conceded to Russia’s longstanding...

By ISW's Syria Team and Syria Direct This graphic mark the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the  Institute for the Study of War  (ISW) and  Syria Direct . The map depicts significant developments in the war in Syria during the period July 28 - August 5, 2018. The control of terrain represented on the map is accurate as of August 5, 2018. See the previous period's SITREP Map  here .

Russia in Review is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them .  Reporting Period : August 7-13, 2018 Authors : Catherine Harris and Jack Ulses Contributors : Molly Adler, Mason Clark, Nicole Geis, Chase Johnson, Maxim Yulis Key Takeaway : The Kremlin is maneuvering from a position of internal weakness as it seeks to compromise U.S. interests and strengthen Russia as a leading global power. A proposed pension reform bill has fueled large-scale protests across Russia, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to backpedal and creating tension within the Kremlin. The protest movement will not likely affect Putin’s grip on power but will require his attention. Meanwhile Israel and the UN de facto advanced Russia’s objective to supplant the U.S. and UN as the principal peace brokers in confli...