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Showing posts from September, 2018

Syria Situation Report: September 13 - 26, 2018

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By ISW's Syria Team and Syria Direct This graphic marks the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the  Institute for the Study of War  (ISW) and  Syria Direct . The map depicts significant developments in the war in Syria during the period September 13 - 26, 2018.

Russia in Review: September 14 - 25, 2018

Russia in Review  is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them.  Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the ISW mailing list at  www.understandingwar.org . Reporting Period : September 14 - 25, 2018 (The previous Russia in Review INTSUM is available  here .) Authors : Catherine Harris and Jack Ulses with the ISW Research Team Key Takeaway : Russia is setting conditions to escalate militarily in Eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin may seek to use this buildup to intimidate and influence the 2019 Ukrainian Presidential Election; to respond to pushback by the U.S. and Turkey in Syria and Ukraine; to distract from continued domestic discontent in Russia; or all of the above. The Kremlin is simultaneously driving protests in Latvia in a likely effort ...

Russia in Review: August 28 - September 13, 2018

Russia in Review  is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them. Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the ISW mailing list at www.understandingwar.org . Reporting Period : August 28 - September 13, 2018 (The previous Russia in Review INTSUM is available  here .) Authors : Catherine Harris, Jack Ulses, and Mason Clark, with Jennifer Cafarella, Elizabeth Teoman, Matti Suomenaro, John Dunford, and Michael Land Key Takeaway : Russia is setting conditions to attack the U.S. and its partner forces in Syria in a limited and plausibly-deniable way in the near term. The Kremlin is also reshaping its proxy governments and their military forces in Ukraine to continue undermining Ukrainian integration into the West. These condition-setting activities would all...

Syria Situation Report: August 28 - September 12, 2018

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By ISW's Syria Team and Syria Direct This graphic marks the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the  Institute for the Study of War  (ISW) and  Syria Direct . The map depicts significant developments in the war in Syria during the period August 28 - September 12, 2018.

Syria Situation Report: August 6 - 28, 2018

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By ISW's Syria Team and Syria Direct This set of graphics marks the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the  Institute for the Study of War  (ISW) and  Syria Direct . The two maps depict significant developments in the war in Syria during the periods August 6-16 and August 16-28, 2018.

Intra Shi'a Civil War Begins in Iraq

By Jennifer Cafarella and Kimberly Kagan with Aaron Hesse, Samantha Leathley, and Jason Zhou An intra-Shi’a civil war is beginning in Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi and Iranian proxy leader Hadi al Ameri are locked in a power struggle to dominate the formation of the next Iraqi government. The U.S. is backing Abadi and temporarily disrupted Iran’s play in late August.  ISW warned on August 28 th that Iran could escalate militarily in response. Abadi and Ameri separately declared coalitions of Council of Representatives (CoR) members sufficient to gain the status of the “largest bloc” on September 2 nd . The largest CoR block has the constitutional right to choose the next Iraqi Prime Minister.  The resulting stalemate has protracted government formation negotiations past legal deadlines.  Each side is escalating with force in order to break this political stalemate. RELATED READING:  KIMBERLY KAGAN AND FREDERICK W. KAGAN, "THE U.S. CAN DEFUSE IRAQ'S ...

Russia in Review: The Kremlin's Campaign in the Balkans

Russia in Review  is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them. Special Topic Update : The Balkans Authors : Catherine Harris, Jack Ulses, and Chase Johnson Key Takeaway : Russia is waging a campaign to increase its influence and limit the growth of NATO and the EU in the Balkans. The Kremlin is establishing proxies and training local separatist forces from the Balkans in Russia. Russia is also actively attempting to sow internal discord within the Balkans in an effort to stall or block further expansion by NATO and the EU. Russia intends to use the Balkan Peninsula as a critical geographic foothold in Europe from which it can launch subversive operations meant to fracture the long-term unity of the West. Its activities could encourage a renewal of the ethnic violence of the 1990s and crea...