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Russia in Review  is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them.  Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the   ISW mailing list . Special Topic Update : The Kremlin Targets Ukraine to Test the West Authors : Catherine Harris, Nicole Geis, and Mason Clark Key Takeaway : Russia conducted a brazen act of war against Ukraine in the Sea of Azov on November 25. The Russian Coast Guard fired on Ukrainian naval vessels and detained their crews in violation of multiple international laws including the Geneva Convention. This escalation is part of a broader deliberate campaign by Russia to test the resolve of the U.S. and NATO, and identify the thresholds at which Russia can conduct aggressive actions against its neighbors without suffering consequences f...

By Matti Suomenaro and Jennifer Cafarella with the ISW Russia Team  Key Takeaway : Russia has finished an advanced anti-access/area denial (A2AD) network in Syria that combines its own air defense and electronic warfare systems with modernized equipment formerly commanded by Syria. Russia can use these capabilities to mount a long-term strategic challenge to the U.S. and NATO in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East. Russia is currently positioned to disrupt the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition, constrain future military options for the U.S. in Syria, and increase the cost of deterring future malign action by Iran and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Air Defense Systems Russia has finished an advanced anti-access / area denial (A2AD) network that constrains U.S. freedom of maneuver in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The zone integrates air defense and electronic warfare systems imported from Russia with modernized equipment formerly operated by Syria. Russia began...

Turkey Brief  is a biweekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Turkish government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them . Reporting Period: November 10 - 27, 2018 Authors: Elizabeth Teoman with John Dunford, Paul Becker, and Kieran Hatton Key Takeaway : Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accelerating his efforts to consolidate power both in Turkey and Northern Syria. Erdogan is tightening security in response to escalating internal threats in areas of Northern Syria occupied by Turkey. He also advanced his domestic consolidation ahead of the March 2019 Turkish Local Elections by successfully pressuring his main nationalist ally into concessions that likely ensure victory for his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Erdogan likely still intends to attack the Syrian Kurdish YPG in Eastern Syria. However, ISW has previously assessed tha...

By Elizabeth Teoman Key Takeaway : Turkey has effectively annexed large portions of Northern Syria. This land grab is similar to its occupation of Northern Cyprus and demonstrates that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is applying a strategy of expeditionary imperialism across the former Ottoman Empire. Erdogan’s adventurism - coupled with Turkey’s complicated instability - risks undermining U.S. and NATO interests. The U.S. must hold Turkey accountable for its disruptive actions and encourage it to engage productively in its near abroad in line with the shared strategic objectives held by the U.S. and NATO. Turkey has effectively annexed large parts of Northern Syria since 2016 . Turkey seized control of a wide swath of terrain along the Syrian-Turkish Border in two separate operations against ISIS and the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey has installed local proxies to manage the region - but these proxies remain subordinate to state institutions in Turkey...

Turkey Brief is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Turkish government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them . Reporting Period: October 20 - November 6, 2018 Authors: Elizabeth Teoman with Jennifer Cafarella, John Dunford, Paul Becker, and Kieran Hatton Key Takeaway : Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is attempting to pressure U.S. President Donald Trump into making new concessions in Syria by threatening an offensive against the primary partner of the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition in Northern Syria. Erdogan has not yet set the military conditions required to follow through on this threat. He most likely intends to use the threat of violence to win political concessions that roll back the gains won by Syrian Kurds along the Syrian-Turkish Border. He is nonetheless setting long-term conditions to challenge security and governance structures e...

Russia in Review  is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them.  Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the   ISW mailing list . Special Topic Update : Russian Military Doctrine and Lessons Learned in Syria Authors : Catherine Harris and Mason Clark Russia is committing fully to hybrid warfare as the likely nature of its future wars . Senior Russian military officers writing in prominent military journals are publishing their insights from Russia’s combat experience in Syria and Ukraine. They are also deriving lessons learned from the past few decades of military operations by the West in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. These officers - including two potential candidates to become the next Russian Chief of the General Staff - are lobbying for a h...