clair086

By Catherine Harris, Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and the ISW Russia Team Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula and the east . The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has been warning that Russia could conduct such operations at short notice since December 11, 2018. It remains impossible to assess whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to launch an offensive or will do so, or whether the visible military preparations are intended to pressure Ukraine and its partners without escalating to additional open conflict. The data suggests that Putin is preparing to attack, although alternative interpretations are possible. One can make reasoned arguments about why it would be unwise for him to attack now (or, indeed, at all). The West should nevertheless focus first on the data itself and the risks that flow from it, rather than on reasoning about Putin’s intentions. Si...

By the ISW Research Team Key Takeaway : Russia and Iran are poised to exploit the U.S. withdrawal from Syria announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on December 19. They and their proxies hold positions along the Syrian-Iraqi Border surrounding areas that the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition and allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently hold. Russia and Iran will undoubtedly attempt to fill the security vacuum left behind by the U.S. in Eastern Syria. The Russo-Iranian Coalition is nonetheless stretched thin and likely cannot secure this new terrain without opening exploitable vulnerabilities for ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq. Turkey and other regional actors will also likely attempt to exploit this opening to compete for terrain and influence in Syria. This map depicts the Russo-Iranian Coalition’s known positions in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq as of December 21. Position locations are based on information available in open sources reviewed by the Institute for the Study of Wa...

By Brandon Wallace with Jennifer Cafarella The U.S. and its allies have not defeated ISIS in Iraq or Syria . ISIS has fixed the attention of the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition on the last remaining territorial pocket of its caliphate even as it regroups in other parts of Syria. ISIS is also reconstituting in its traditional strongholds in Iraq. Current conditions on the ground do not warrant the withdrawal of the U.S. from Syria. See the previous version of this assessment published in October 2018 here . ISIS in Syria : The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition has not yet destroyed the final physical stronghold of ISIS along the Middle Euphrates River Valley in Eastern Syria. ISIS retains control over roughly twenty kilometers of terrain that it uses as a staging ground for counterattacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF reportedly seized the majority of the town of Hajin on December 14. The urban center remains contested and partner forces were only able to progress after an intense...

By the ISW Russia Team Key Takeaway : Russia is expanding the variety of means it uses to threaten Ukraine along multiple borders - from the Sea of Azov and Donbas to Western Ukraine. The Kremlin retains the capability and intent to escalate these threats as necessary in order to challenge the Government of Ukraine. The Kremlin is attempting to inflame religious and social tensions to polarize Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s 2019 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections. Russia will continue to use all means necessary to advance its long-term objective to reassert its sphere of influence over Ukraine. Russia continues to bolster its military capabilities on the occupied Crimean Peninsula , including air, naval and anti-access area-denial assets, in order to create a credible deterrent against a potential response by NATO.  CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE Russia continues to threaten military escalation and maintain a de-facto blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov . Russia’s likely long-...

By ISW's Syria Team and Syria Direct The following graphic marks the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and  Syria Direct . The map depicts significant developments in the war in Syria during the period November 29 - December 12, 2018. Click image to enlarge.

By Jason Zhou with the ISW Russia Team Key Takeaway : Russia is poised to escalate its campaign in Ukraine at a time when domestic crises, partly fueled by the Kremlin, distract key U.S. allies in Europe. America’s three most important allies in NATO - France, Germany, and the United Kingdom - face ongoing political instability even as events in Eastern Europe divert the attention of NATO. These crises all have domestic roots, but nearly all of them are being fanned or influenced by the Kremlin. The crises occupy the attention of critical political leaders in NATO and have already contributed to weak responses by NATO and the EU to Russia’s aggression in the Kerch Strait. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely calculates that crucial NATO leaders are currently too weak and preoccupied with domestic affairs to respond meaningfully to further escalation. This calculus increases the likelihood that Putin may commit additional acts of aggression, such as the seizure of additional territo...

Turkey Brief  is a biweekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Turkish government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them . Reporting Period : November 27 - December 12, 2018 Authors : Elizabeth Teoman with Paul Becker and Kieran Hatton Key Takeaway : Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is unlikely to meaningfully challenge Russia’s increasing aggression in the Black Sea despite its harm to the interests of both Turkey and NATO. He is instead remaining effectively neutral in order to preserve a cooperative relationship with the Kremlin that provides him economic benefits and freedom of action in Syria. Erdogan’s effective neutrality in the Black Sea is a boon to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is currently prepared to launch a renewed ground offensive against Ukraine. Turkey is unlikely meaningfully to contest Russia’s recent aggression in...

Russia in Review  is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them.  Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the   ISW mailing list . Special Topic Update : Russia Poised to Escalate Ukraine Campaign Author : Catherine Harris, Mason Clark, and Nicole Geis with the ISW Research Team Key Takeaway : Russia will likely escalate militarily against Ukraine imminently. Russia is setting military conditions to prepare its forces for open conflict with Ukraine. Russia is already creating the pretext to escalate by circulating the false narrative that Ukraine and the West are preparing imminent attacks, including a chemical weapons attack, in Eastern Ukraine. Russia may fabricate evidence of a chemical weapons attack – or may itself conduct a chemical weapons...

By ISW's Syria Team and Syria Direct These two graphics mark the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and  Syria Direct . The maps depict significant developments in the war in Syria during the period November 8 - 29, 2018. Map 1: November 8 - 19, 2018 Click image to enlarge . Map 2: November 19 - 29, 2018 Click image to enlarge .